{"id":5727,"date":"2025-10-20T15:25:22","date_gmt":"2025-10-20T22:25:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/?p=5727"},"modified":"2025-10-20T14:38:41","modified_gmt":"2025-10-20T21:38:41","slug":"elon-musk-estimates-10-probability-that-grok-5-could-become-agi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/elon-musk-estimates-10-probability-that-grok-5-could-become-agi\/","title":{"rendered":"Elon Musk Estimates 10% Probability That Grok 5 Could Become AGI"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Elon Musk said xAI\u2019s newest model, Grok 5, now has about a 10% chance of becoming the world\u2019s first artificial general intelligence. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" data-id=\"5730\" src=\"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/91243-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5730\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/91243-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/91243-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/91243-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/91243.jpg 1500w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Image by DC Studio on Freepik<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_75 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-69e8467fdd48e\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-69e8467fdd48e\"  aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/elon-musk-estimates-10-probability-that-grok-5-could-become-agi\/#Musks_estimate_and_how_he_framed_it\" >Musk\u2019s estimate and how he framed it<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/elon-musk-estimates-10-probability-that-grok-5-could-become-agi\/#What_xAI_is_changing_and_why_it_matters\" >What xAI is changing and why it matters<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/elon-musk-estimates-10-probability-that-grok-5-could-become-agi\/#Context_and_caveats\" >Context and caveats<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/elon-musk-estimates-10-probability-that-grok-5-could-become-agi\/#Short-term_ambitions\" >Short-term ambitions<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Musks_estimate_and_how_he_framed_it\"><\/span>Musk\u2019s estimate and how he framed it<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Musk posted that the 10% figure is a probability estimate and that the odds are rising as Grok continues to improve. He presented the number as a rough, public-facing gauge of the model\u2019s trajectory rather than a formal technical guarantee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_xAI_is_changing_and_why_it_matters\"><\/span>What xAI is changing and why it matters<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Musk said Grok is evolving rapidly. He announced plans to remove heuristic rules from the system within roughly four to six weeks and said the AI will eventually process more than 100 million posts and videos daily to better match users with content. xAI has rolled out Grok 5 alongside multimodal tools such as Grok Imagine, and Musk has discussed building broader \u201cworld models\u201d that would extend capabilities beyond text-only language models. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Context_and_caveats\"><\/span>Context and caveats<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>News coverage notes that Musk\u2019s statements are public posts, not peer-reviewed technical disclosures, and that assigning a numeric probability to AGI is inherently speculative. Observers point out that definitions and tests for AGI remain contested, so claims about odds are open to debate until formal benchmarks and independent evaluations are published. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Short-term_ambitions\"><\/span>Short-term ambitions<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Musk also reiterated other xAI goals tied to Grok\u2019s rollout, including plans for new consumer-facing products and a previously stated aim to release a notable AI-generated game within a specified timeframe. The goal is to convert Grok\u2019s progress into visible, useful features for X and other products.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Elon Musk said xAI\u2019s newest model, Grok 5, now has about a 10% chance of becoming the world\u2019s first artificial general intelligence. Musk\u2019s estimate and how he framed it Musk posted that the 10% figure is a probability estimate and that the odds are rising as Grok continues to improve. He presented the number as &#8230; <a title=\"Elon Musk Estimates 10% Probability That Grok 5 Could Become AGI\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/elon-musk-estimates-10-probability-that-grok-5-could-become-agi\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Elon Musk Estimates 10% Probability That Grok 5 Could Become AGI\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":5730,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[],"coauthors":[19],"class_list":["post-5727","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5727","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5727"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5727\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5728,"href":"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5727\/revisions\/5728"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5730"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5727"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5727"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5727"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tweetdelete.net\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=5727"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}