Elon Musk said xAI’s newest model, Grok 5, now has about a 10% chance of becoming the world’s first artificial general intelligence.
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Musk’s estimate and how he framed it
Musk posted that the 10% figure is a probability estimate and that the odds are rising as Grok continues to improve. He presented the number as a rough, public-facing gauge of the model’s trajectory rather than a formal technical guarantee.
What xAI is changing and why it matters
Musk said Grok is evolving rapidly. He announced plans to remove heuristic rules from the system within roughly four to six weeks and said the AI will eventually process more than 100 million posts and videos daily to better match users with content. xAI has rolled out Grok 5 alongside multimodal tools such as Grok Imagine, and Musk has discussed building broader “world models” that would extend capabilities beyond text-only language models.
Context and caveats
News coverage notes that Musk’s statements are public posts, not peer-reviewed technical disclosures, and that assigning a numeric probability to AGI is inherently speculative. Observers point out that definitions and tests for AGI remain contested, so claims about odds are open to debate until formal benchmarks and independent evaluations are published.
Short-term ambitions
Musk also reiterated other xAI goals tied to Grok’s rollout, including plans for new consumer-facing products and a previously stated aim to release a notable AI-generated game within a specified timeframe. The goal is to convert Grok’s progress into visible, useful features for X and other products.
